Talk:Demographic history of the Vilnius region

1916 German Census

I have reviewed the data regarding the census several times. More I look at it less it makes any sense. I have inserted the map of Ober Ost in order to show some clarity but it is not enough. First of all the author of that section, and probably the only one who saw that Polish written book in 1919, mentions that this data relates to the whole occupied Lithuania. If it relates to only to the centarl part of Ober Ost then the total population was 1920000. Out of which it has to be at least 1500000 Lithuanians (see 1897 Russian census). That gives about 78pc of Lithuanians. If census covers the central and southern parts then the total was 2640000. Out of which it has to be 1500000 Lithuanians (57pc). Now we have 58pc Poles which makes no sense at all!

Could anybody provide more reliable source in respect of the 1916 German Census, preferable German? Or at least could anybody provide a scaned copy of part of Brensztejn book where these details were mentioned in order to accertain the facts?

As at the moment the data have very dubious value. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Mnplastic (talk • contribs) 18:45, 11 June 2011 (UTC)

Polish Proportion in Lithuanian SSR districts in 1940

The biggest misunderstanding between Lithuanians and Polish comes from the fact both sides use census in different areas. Poles account Wilno Voivodeship while current Lithuanians account the part of current Lithuania which was occupied by Poland. The difference is huge.

I have tabulated Lithuanian municipalities which were occupied by Poland below. There is no doubt that Polish speakers were majority in Vilnius district, Vilnius City and Šalčininkai district municipalities so we can ignore those areas as there is no argument. However, the remaining districts cast a huge doubt as to the proportion of Polish speakers in those areas before the war. There is a fact that only about 50% of Polish speakers left Lithuania in 1944-1956. Most of them were from Vilnius city and Vilnius district municipalities. Now we can multiply each Polish number by 1.5, except Vilnius which could be multiplied by 2.5. You will get approximate proportion of Poles in 1940 in those regions compared to Lithuanians. Most of Lithuanians who came to "Lithuanian Vilnius Region" migrated to Vilnius city therefore proportion of Lithuanians in the remaining districts has not changed much. As you can see there is no doubt that in Druskininkai, Varėna and Ignalina districts Polish speakers were not the majority. Only Švenčionys and Trakai could be disputed but then we should take into account Jewish who used to live there too. From that point of view it is undoubtedly that Polish speakers were not the overall majority in those 2 districts. There is only doubt if Polish speakers were the biggest minority in those districts. There were 15,700 Lithuanians in Švenčionys district and 19,800 in Trakai district in 2001. This explains one more reason why Lithuanians see the occupation of Vilnius region as unlawful as Poles even occupied territories which were predominantly Lithuanian.

Ethnic Poles in Lithuania according to the 2001 Lithuanian census

Municipality name	County	Total population	Number of ethnic Poles	Percentage	Percentage (1940)
Druskininkai municipality	Alytus	25,440	995	3.9%	5.9%
Varėna district municipality	Alytus	31,137	2,067	6.6%	9.6%
Ignalina district municipality	Utena	23,018	1,908	8.3%	11.9%
Vilnius city municipality	Vilnius	553,904	104,446	18.9%	36.7%
Šalčininkai district municipality	Vilnius	39,282	31,223	79.5%	85.3%
Švenčionys district municipality	Vilnius	33,135	9,098	27.5%	36.2%
Trakai district municipality	Vilnius	37,376	12,403	33.2%	42.7%
Vilnius district municipality	Vilnius	88,586	54,322	61.3%	70.4%

Well, this is a potentially interesting analysis, but it is also original research. Need sources to back up these kinds of calculations. Incidentally, why are you multiplying by 1.5 rather than 2, if 50% left?Volunteer Marek (talk) 21:01, 12 June 2011 (UTC)

Mnplastic:=> — Preceding unsigned comment added by Mnplastic (talk • contribs) 21:18, 13 June 2011 (UTC)

This is theoretical approach at the moment. "The rural population was denied the right to leave Lithuania due to their lack of official pre-war documentation of Polish citizenship" (see Polish population transfers (1944–1946)) so basically the proportion of Poles who left Vilnius was much higher. If i multiple every number by 1.5 except Vilnius the total number of Poles equals to every number multiplied by 2 (including Vilnius). However, in the first case I put more weight in respect of Vilnius, which should be according to the citation above.

In any case, regardless how many times we multiple the number of Poles in Druskininkai, Varena and Ignalina municipalities the answer is the same. Lithuanians were majority in those municipalities. There is only open question as to Trakai and Svencionys municipalities.

It could be good to know 1923 Central Lithuania Polish census separately. It could be interesting to find out later censuses of Wilno, Święciany and Troki counties. It would be very difficult to find out Druskininkai and Varena because these municipalities were split and added to Polish dominated communes which change the proportion of Lithuanians significantly. Eg. Druskininkai municipality was added to Grodno county and a big part of Varena municipality to Lyda county. I don't know if it was done on purpose but in any event adding Lithuanian dominated territories to Polish dominates counties was very effective way to diminish Lithuanian presence.

Ah, I see. Like I said, this is potentially pretty interesting. It sounds like some solid archival research could help here (assuming that these kinds of sources exist).

My understanding of the situation in 1944/46 was that uneducated/lower class Poles were forbidden from leaving, while educated/middle and upper class Poles were expelled. Part of this was done because the educated Poles were seen as a source of potential future trouble by the Soviets who thought they'd be easier to control if they were all in one place (i.e. with other educated Poles) and Lithuanian nationalists regarded them as a threat to Lithuanian identity as well, while they thought that the lower class Poles could be Lithuanized (or "reLithuanized" as they believed).

One more question, just out of personal interest. It looks like you're doing a backward projection from the 2001 Lithuanian census to the pre-war years. Wouldn't birth rates of the two ethnic populations also play a role? Was there anything like a "baby boom" in post-war Lithuania (there was one in Poland) and are there reasons to think it played out differently across ethnicities? One possible channel could be through income and education - if indeed all the educated/upper and middle class Poles left then the average income/education level of ethnic Poles in Lithuania would be lower than the average income/education level of the general population, and to the extent these variables are connected to birth rates you could get a difference. I have no idea if this was indeed the case and I'm just speculating.Volunteer Marek (talk) 21:26, 13 June 2011 (UTC)

References

Map

Re [1]. Please explain what exactly is wrong with this map. Yes, the map is based on census. Yes it's a "Polish map". But the map also very closely corresponds to what we know of demographics of the region. If this map is somehow "wrong" please provide sources to the contrary. Please use this space here to discuss here rather than edit warring.Volunteer Marek (talk) 15:54, 8 February 2016 (UTC)

Fake

Tzarist official sign in Vilnius "Speaking Lithuanian is strictly forbidden" (second half of the 19th century)

- this is a fake as it's written according to Russian grammar rules adopted only in 1918 — Preceding unsigned comment added by 129.125.6.1 (talk) 14:09, 6 December 2017 (UTC)

Newly created article – should it be merged?

Demographic history of Vilnius appears to have a lot of overlap with this article, and I'm not sure whether it is needed to have them as separate articles given that this one appears to also focus a lot on Vilnius itself. Is a merge warranted here? Chaotic Enby (talk · contribs) 10:43, 27 July 2024 (UTC)

• Oppose because the new article focuses on the demographics history of Vilnius city, not region, so it is easier to read. The Vilnius County (modern Vilnius Region) has other cities, so it would be complicated to write in an overall style about Vilnius Region/County demographics and at the same time about demographics of various cities of Vilnius County. I think cities, especially Vilnius, should have separate articles and the article Demographic history of the Vilnius region should focus on non-city locations and region's overall statistics. -- Pofka (talk) 11:20, 8 September 2024 (UTC)

Support, the new article doesn't convey any new information that wouldn't be mentioned in the Demographic history of the Vilnius region or in History of Vilnius articles. Marcelus (talk) 20:04, 11 September 2024 (UTC)